Case Study 1: Forecasting


Using the Northern College Health Services visit volume in Appendix 6-1 on page 113 of the textbook, for this assignment, you will be providing a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using the average change, confidence interval, average percent change, moving averages, and exponential smoothing forecasting methods. Use the Internet or Strayer Library to research at least two (2) examples of the forecasting methods being used in health services organizations.

Write a four(4) page paper in which you:

  1. Explain each step in the forecasting process for each method.
  2. Provide a brief summary of your researched health services organizations implementing the forecasting methods.
  3. Provide a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using each method of the forecasting process.
  4. Conclude which forecasting method provides the best forecast, and provide a rationale for your conclusion.

Your assignment must follow these formatting requirements:

  • Be typed, double spaced, using Times New Roman font (size 12), with one-inch margins on all sides; citations and references must follow APA or school-specific format. Check with your professor for any additional instructions.
  • Include a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student’s name, the professor’s name, the course title, and the date. The cover page and the reference page are not included in the required assignment page length.

Appendix 6-1 Visit Volume for Northern Collage Health Services


Visits to Health Services


2005  Jan   21           2007    Jan    32

Feb  19                           Feb   34

Mar   16                         Mar    39

Apr    20                         Apr     42

May   15                        May    41

Jun     18                        Jun     21

July     16                        July     24

Aug     14                         Aug   28

Sept    18                       Sept    47

Oct     25                        Oct     45

Nov    30                        Nov    46

Dec    16                        Dec    44

2006   Jan    22         2008     Jan     39

Feb    26                         Feb    41

Mar   31                          Mar   34

Apr    39                         Apr     39

May    44                         May 38

Jun      17                         Jun   19

July      22                       July    28

Aug     18                        Aug    29

Sept      27                       Sept    37

Oct      33                         Oct     39

Nov     29

Dec      33

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